Spatial risk assessment of oil spill vulnerability in north of Persian Gulf using batch mike model simulation and Monte Carlo method

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Sahar Mokhtari, Seyed Mohsen Hosseini1, Afshin Danehkar, Masoud Torabi Azad and Babak Naimi

Tarbiyat Modares University, Iran Tehran University, Iran Islamic Azad University North Tehran Branch, Iran Islamic Azad University Science and Research Branch, Iran

: J Mar Biol Oceanogr

Abstract

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Maps of oil spill probability are important tools in environmental risk assessment and in decision support in coastal zone management. Spatial risk assessment of oil spill vulnerability has 5 steps: (1) Make an oil spill probability map, (2) Prepare a map of the sensitivity of the coastal zone to oil spill, (3) Based on the probability map, prepare multiple scenarios of potential oil spills selected based on different occurrence probability distributions using the Monte-Carlo method, (4) For each potential oil spill scenario, run a dynamic oil-spill model to find the parts of the coastal zone affected by the oil spill and (5) The output maps of all simulated scenarios are combined into one vulnerability map to see which parts of the coastline are most likely to be hit by oil from oil spills. The simulated oil spill volume shape file is overlaid with the coastal zone sensitivity map to create the final spatial oil spill risk assessment map which identifies the priority areas for protection about oil spill. In this study, we explain a procedure for running multiple scenarios of the Mike by DHi software (Ecolab oil spill model) based on the oil spill probability map. The batch process can prepare multiple simulations automatically, speeding up the creation of the vulnerability map. We implemented the method using the R open source software.

Biography

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Sahar Mokhtari is a PhD candidate at Tarbiyat Modares University in Iran. Currently she is a Visiting Research Scholar in Louisiana State University. She has worked as the Senior Expert on coastal environment. Title of her PhD thesis is “Designing of decision support system for the protection of coasts from oil spills”.

E-mail:saharm@lsu.edu