The Transformation of the North Natuna Sea Crisis in a Hybrid Warfare Scenario in the Southeast Asia Region between Arm Races and Alliance Defense Rivalry

The dispute that occurred in the North Natuna sea was triggered by overlap between claimant states where its territorial borders overlapped with another state. Even though the escalation of tension so far has never led to open armed conflict between the military forces of claimants and non- claimants states which have interests from within and outside the region, efforts to show mutual force and provocation appear to be getting bolder, and this will significantly affect the occurrence of stability disturbances of politics, economy and security in the Southeast Asian region. Using exploratory qualitative research methods and case studies, the use of data analysis using the miles-hubermann approach through data that has been validated between primary and secondary data, will produce a simulation of crisis projections going forward. The rivalry among the defense alliances that continues to occur has resulted in several scenarios of open conflict in Southeast Asia. As a conclusion as well as a starting point in promoting Asean's role in the midst of this crisis, Indonesia still has a strategic position in the region. The function of the dynamic equilibrium as a political position in the international arena makes Indonesia and its military forces very vulnerable to triggering potential arm races.