Effect of Frequent Policy Change on Disaster Preparedness and Systemic Resilience

We employ System Dynamics (SD) modelling to analyse the structural behaviour of the interactions between Disaster Preparedness, Systemic Physics, and Resilience in response to policy change in maritime logistics setting. It appears that industry stakeholders are not able to anticipate the effects of strategic risk management decisions. Results suggest that frequent policy interventions geared towards disaster reduction have the potential to produce unintended consequences as levels of unacknowledged conditions increase. The research models provide strategic policy makers with real-time decision evaluation tool to justify the choice of a set of alternative risk reduction interventions prior to decision implementation.