Characteristics of Short-term LOLP Considering High Penetration of Wind Generation

Characteristics of Short-term LOLP Considering High Penetration of Wind Generation

Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) is an important measure of generation adequacy. A good understanding of the new characteristics of LOLP exhibited after integration of variable renewable generation is essential to the power system reliability. This paper presents the results of a study on the impact of wind generation on short-term LOLP, which then becomes a fastchanging stochastic process, driven by the intermittent and variable wind. We firstly introduce a mathematical model for calculating short-term LOLP, and then a novel quantitative measure of its behavior when converging to its steady-state level is derived. In addition, the corresponding empirical formulas are offered which can be used in practice to estimate the convergence time of LOLP under different conditions. Finally, an application of the outcomes of the analytical work in estimation of the dynamic behavior of shortterm LOLP with an actual wind generation profile is presented to show the significance of the developed measures.