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Geoinformatics & Geostatistics: An Overview
Research Article
A New Estimate of the Average Earth Surface Land Temperature Spanning 1753 to 2011
 
1Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project, Novim Group, USA Robert Rohde1, 1Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project, Novim Group, USA
2University of California, Berkeley, USA
3Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA
Richard A. Muller1,2,3*
, 2University of California, Berkeley, USA
3Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA
Robert Jacobsen2,3
, 1Berkeley Earth Surface Temperature Project, Novim Group, USA Elizabeth Muller1, 2University of California, Berkeley, USA
3Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA
Saul Perlmutter2,3
, 2University of California, Berkeley, USA
3Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA
Arthur Rosenfeld2,3
, 2University of California, Berkeley, USA
3Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA
Jonathan Wurtele2,3
, 3Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA Donald Groom3
and 4Oregon State University, USA Charlotte Wickham4
 
Corresponding author : Richard A. Muller, Berkeley Earth Project 2831 Garber St. Berkeley CA, 94705, USA, Tel: 510 735 6877; E-mail: RAMuller@LBL.gov
 
Received: September 24, 2012 Accepted: December 02, 2012 Published: December 07, 2012
 
Citation: Rohde R, Muller RA, Jacobsen R, Muller E, Perlmutter S, et al. (2013) A New Estimate of the Average Earth Surface Land Temperature Spanning 1753 to 2011. Geoinfor Geostat: An Overview 1:1.. doi:10.4172/2327-4581.1000101
 
Abstract
 
We report an estimate of the Earth’s average land surface temperature for the period 1753 to 2011. To address issues of potential station selection bias, we used a larger sampling of stations than had prior studies. For the period post 1880, our estimate is similar to those previously reported by other groups, although we report smaller uncertainties. The land temperature rise from the 1950s decade to the 2000s decade is 0.90 ± 0.05°C (95% confidence). Both maximum and minimum daily temperatures have increased during the last century. Diurnal variations decreased from 1900 to 1987, and then increased; this increase is significant but not understood. The period of 1753 to 1850 is marked by sudden drops in land surface temperature that are coincident with known volcanism; the response function is approximately 1.5 ± 0.5°C per 100 Tg of atmospheric sulfate. This volcanism, combined with a simple proxy for anthropogenic effects (logarithm of the CO2 concentration), reproduces much of the variation in the land surface temperature record; the fit is not improved by the addition of a solar forcing term. Thus, for this very simple model, solar forcing does not appear to contribute to the observed global warming of the past 250 years; the entire change can be modeled by a sum of volcanism and a single anthropogenic proxy. The residual variations include interannual and multi-decadal variability very similar to that of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO).
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